Information about risk probabilities and impacts will be used in quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulations. So, Indiana Jones enters that there is a 50% probability that he will meet a maniacal Nazi scientist.Īfter entering in the risk information into his risk register, Indian Jones will be able to understand both the potential impacts of the risk and have information that will help him come up with plans to minimize or avoid the probable consequences of each risk. Usually, a risk has a single probability for all risk categories. Indiana Jones enters probabilities for both risk impacts. He chooses “Non-injury accident” meaning he probably gets knocked down a few times, but prevails without any grievous wounds as this is the usual outcome of his fights with villains regardless of their size, skill, and weapons. Probability and impact scales can be defined in terms of relative or ordinal (High, Medium. In that case the more lethal the means (example a gun. This is akin to probability versus harm done in a suicide attempt. The impact may be in terms of money, time, organizations reputation, loss of business, injury to people, damage to property and so on. The impact is more important than the probability that the risk may happen. For each impact type Indiana Jones must define an actual impact value. Risk Impact describes the effects or consequences the project will experience if the risk event occurs. Since there is nobody else there that he cares about and he does not have any equipment or tools rather than his hat, he chooses “Safety for himself”. Indiana Jones is quite risk tolerant and decides that a fight with a maniacal scientist is not a problem for him and should not have a high impact on his mission. Relative delay, for example task is delayed on 20%, if risk is occurred In our case we can define the type of impact for the impact type related to category project duration:Ī. Impact type is what exactly may happen if risk occurs.
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